New research published by The Firewalkers finds that applications to connect data centres to the British electricity system have reached 50 gigawatts β against a national grid operator forecast of just 9.9 to 14.6 gigawatts needed by 2050. Environmental movement calls for an immediate moratorium on greenfield applications until planning rules catch up.
Companies have applied to connect 50 gigawatts of data centres to the British electricity grid β roughly three times the country's entire peak demand β despite independent forecasts suggesting Britain will need fewer than 15 gigawatts of data centre capacity by 2050, according to new analysis published today by environmental movement The Firewalkers.
The analysis, drawn from official sources including Ofgem, the National Energy System Operator (NESO), and the International Energy Agency (IEA), finds that the gap between what the data centre industry is claiming and what independent bodies say will actually be required is not a planning rounding error. It is, on the most conservative measure, more than three times the 2050 requirement β and roughly twenty-one times the capacity already connected and operational today.
The Firewalkers analysis places the current data centre boom in a historical context that stretches from the British Railway Mania of the 1840s to the fibre-optic glut of the late 1990s. In every case, a genuine technological revolution attracted far more infrastructure investment than the technology could absorb. Promoters made money. Late investors and local communities were left holding the consequences.
This time, the consequences include greenfield land loss, unaccounted water consumption, and grid queue congestion that delays genuine infrastructure projects. England's National Framework for Water Resources has acknowledged that authorities are unable to accurately model future water demand from the sector because data centres are not required to disclose their consumption. The IEA estimates current global data centre water use at over 560 billion litres a year, rising to 1.2 trillion litres by 2030.
"The numbers are not in dispute. They come from the grid operator, the energy regulator, and the IEA. What is in dispute is why planning authorities are still processing applications as if none of this analysis exists. Communities deserve better than a 12-week consultation window on decisions that will affect their land, their water and their grid for decades."Scott Seivwright, Founder, The Firewalkers
The analysis notes that the speculative overreach is not purely theoretical. Microsoft cancelled approximately two gigawatts of data centre capacity across the US and Europe in the six months to March 2025, citing a possible oversupply position. Data centre cancellations rose to 25 in 2025, up from 6 in 2024. The city of Charlotte, North Carolina, imposed a 150-day moratorium on new construction while it assesses the energy, water, and zoning impacts.
Ireland's energy regulator, the CRU, has already introduced rules requiring new data centre connections to be matched by onsite generation and storage β a measure the Firewalkers describes as precisely the kind of proportionate response that Britain's planning system has so far failed to produce.
The Firewalkers does not oppose data centres as a category. Computational infrastructure is a fact of modern life, and there are models β brownfield redevelopment, renewable-matched siting, genuine community consultation β that can be done responsibly.
What the organisation opposes is the processing of speculative greenfield applications in the absence of planning rules adequate to the scale and nature of the impact. Ofgem has already acknowledged the old grid connection queue was not fit for purpose. The planning system needs to reach the same conclusion.
The organisation is calling on planning authorities in England, Scotland, and Wales to require applicants to demonstrate secured end-customer demand before any greenfield application is processed; to publish full water consumption estimates alongside planning submissions; and to adopt an explicit brownfield-first policy for data centre development, consistent with the approach taken for other major infrastructure categories.
Scott Seivwright added: "This is not anti-technology. Some of the most pointed warnings about speculative excess in the data centre market are coming from senior investors at Sequoia and Oaktree Capital β not from campaigners. The question is not whether AI needs infrastructure. The question is who decides where it goes, on whose land, using whose water."
The Firewalkers is a global environmental movement founded in Edinburgh by Scott Seivwright, using AI tools to protect the natural world from the environmental impact of data centre infrastructure. The movement brings together technologists, planners, community organisers, and people of faith around a shared commitment to responsible infrastructure development. firewalkers.earth
Full research article: The Great Data Centre Gamble: Why Britain Is Being Asked to Bet Its Power Grid on a Bubble β published simultaneously at firewalkers.earth
Primary sources:
Scott Seivwright is a senior technology professional with 30 years of experience in digital transformation, an Oxford AI Programme graduate, co-founder of GreenPO.org, and a member of the Green Software Foundation. He is available for interview, comment, and broadcast media. He speaks from Edinburgh and can travel.
High-resolution images and the full research report are available on request. Broadcast and podcast enquiries welcome.
The Firewalkers is an independent movement. It accepts no advertising and has no commercial relationship with any data centre operator, energy company, or planning authority.
Scott Seivwright
Founder, The Firewalkers
firewalkers.earth
YouTube: @firewalkersearth
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/heartofscott